Lions, a keystone species in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) ecosystem, have faced dramatic declines in numbers and range over the last few generations, not only in the NCA but across Africa. This decline is coupled with genetic separation among increasingly fragmented populations. The NCA represents a critical region where the coexistence of wildlife and pastoralist communities poses complex challenges, while also offering an opportunity to study how lions and humans can coexist and explore the concept of "corridors of tolerance." For over 60 years, a long-term demography study has meticulously tracked the lion population in Ngorongoro, providing invaluable data on their ecology and population dynamics. Human-lion conflicts, particularly livestock predation, remain a significant threat, leading to retaliatory killings that exacerbate the lions' plight. To address these conflicts, the Ilchokuti program by KopeLion, based on the Lion Guardians model, has been implemented in the NCA. Alongside this, a Conservation Incentive Program (CIP) was trialed to further promote coexistence. These community engagement initiatives aim to foster human-wildlife coexistence by providing economic incentives for conservation efforts and involving local communities as active participants. Our research focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of these programs in achieving socio-ecological, management, and conservation goals while maintaining and enhancing the long-term lion demography study in Ngorongoro. Through this applied research, we aim to contribute to sustainable models for human-lion coexistence, ensuring the survival and health of lion populations in the NCA and beyond.

Lions are experiencing a dramatic decline in range and numbers due to habitat loss, prey depletion, and human-lion conflict. Fragmented populations experience increasing vulnerability to environmental and demographic stochasticity and decreasing genetic diversity with lower adaptive capacities, jeopardizing their long-term viability. There is an increasing need to find options for connecting these fragmented populations. Human-lion conflicts present a significant challenge to both lion conservation and pastoralist livelihoods in the NCA and across Africa. Traditional conservation strategies have proven insufficient for fostering sustainable coexistence, leading to frequent retaliatory killings of lions. The Ilchokuti program by KopeLion, based on the Lion Guardians model, and the Conservation Incentive Program (CIP) have been implemented in the NCA to address these conflicts. The Ilchokuti program engages local communities in conservation activities, providing economic incentives for protecting lions, while CIP offers financial rewards for conservation efforts. How effective are these programs in reversing the decline of lion populations and improving community attitudes towards conservation? Evaluating whether these initiatives have led to tangible improvements in community engagement, reduced human-lion conflicts, and contributed to the recovery of lion populations is crucial. This includes assessing changes in lion movement patterns, activity levels, and overall numbers. As we assess effectiveness of conservation strategies on the lion, a low-density, wide-ranging and elusive species, we need comparable measures of population numbers. The Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture (SECR) technique holds promise, and apart from assessing density of lions across the NCA, we can compare it against the well-known population in the Ngorongoro Crater. Finding more sustainable models for human-wildlife coexistence is essential for broader conservation efforts. This research aims to provide comprehensive insights into the impact and scalability of these programs, promoting sustainable coexistence and the preservation of lion populations in the NCA and beyond.

The general objectives are to 1) maintain the long-term (+ 60 year) demography study on lion in Ngorongoro Crater and Ndutu, including social structure, home-range use, population dynamics , 2) measure the extent, drivers, and impact of human-lion conflicts on lion ecology including connectivity and genetics, 3) Evaluate the effectiveness of the combined Ilchokuti & CIP Program at achieving socio-ecological goals in the NCA; namely, engaging local stakeholders as conservation partners, empowering local stakeholders to derive tangible economic benefits through their coexistence with lions, and improving community perceptions and attitudes towards wildlife and conservation. 4) Evaluate the effectiveness of the Ilchokuti & CIP CIP Program at achieving lion conservation goals in the NCA; namely, increasing lion presence, numbers, and range within the NCA’s multi-use area and reducing retaliatory lion hunts and killings, 5) Evaluate the scalability of community-engaged incentive-based programs, such as the one we piloted in NCA as a policy tool for promoting human-wildlife coexistence in Tanzania’s protected area corridors, 6) Develop indicators to measure the effectiveness of CIP programs at achieving Global Biodiversity Framework Goals.